Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Rangers
36%
Draw
27%
Celtic
37%
Actual result: Rangers 3 – 0 Celtic · Rangers winJarvis gave this outcome: 36%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rangers, negative favours Celtic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Rangers - Celtic)-0.03
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Rangers / Celtic1.39 / 1.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.5% / 42.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.6%
Over 2.5 goals 53.0%
Over 3.5 goals 30.8%
First half
First-half result (Rangers / draw / Celtic)28.5% / 42.2% / 29.3%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half36.6%
Half-time then full-time
Celtic lead at half-time then Celtic win22.1%
Rangers lead at half-time then Rangers win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Rangers's side
Rangers −2.011.5%
Rangers −1.7514.2%
Rangers −1.516.9%
Rangers −1.2521.7%
Rangers −1.026.4%
Rangers −0.7531.2%
Rangers −0.536.0%
Rangers −0.2542.7%
Rangers draw no bet (0.0)49.4%
Rangers +0.2556.1%
Rangers +0.562.8%
Rangers +0.7567.7%
Rangers +1.072.5%
Rangers +1.582.3%
Rangers +2.087.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Rangers win2.78
Draw3.74
Celtic win2.69
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Rangers wins by more than 1 goals17%
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%