Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Reading
7%
Draw
13%
Brentford
81%
Actual result: Reading 1 – 2 Brentford · Brentford winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Reading, negative favours Brentford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Reading - Brentford)-2.17
Expected total goals3.77
Expected goals Reading / Brentford0.80 / 2.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.4% / 47.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.2%
Over 2.5 goals 72.5%
Over 3.5 goals 51.9%
First half
First-half result (Reading / draw / Brentford)9.4% / 29.2% / 61.4%
A goal in the first half81.2%
Two or more in the first half51.0%
Half-time then full-time
Brentford lead at half-time then Brentford win58.3%
Level at half-time then Brentford win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw7.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Reading's side
Reading −2.01.2%
Reading −1.751.6%
Reading −1.51.9%
Reading −1.253.1%
Reading −1.04.3%
Reading −0.755.5%
Reading −0.56.7%
Reading −0.259.9%
Reading draw no bet (0.0)13.0%
Reading +0.2516.2%
Reading +0.519.3%
Reading +0.7524.0%
Reading +1.028.6%
Reading +1.538.0%
Reading +2.048.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Reading win14.87
Draw7.94
Brentford win1.24
Over 2.51.38
Under 2.53.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Reading wins by more than 1 goals2%
Brentford wins by more than 1 goals62%