US MLS

Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution prediction

Real Salt Lake

3 – 0

Full-time

New England Revolution

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Salt Lake

44%

Draw

27%

New England Revolution

29%

Actual result: Real Salt Lake 3 – 0 New England Revolution · Real Salt Lake winJarvis gave this outcome: 44% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Salt Lake, negative favours New England Revolution) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Salt Lake - New England Revolution)+0.33

Expected total goals2.81

Expected goals Real Salt Lake / New England Revolution1.57 / 1.24

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.3% / 42.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.1%

Over 2.5 goals 53.4%

Over 3.5 goals 31.1%

First half

First-half result (Real Salt Lake / draw / New England Revolution)33.4% / 42.4% / 24.3%

A goal in the first half70.9%

Two or more in the first half37.0%

Half-time then full-time

Real Salt Lake lead at half-time then Real Salt Lake win26.8%

New England Revolution lead at half-time then New England Revolution win17.0%

Level at half-time then draw16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Salt Lake's side

Real Salt Lake −2.016.0%

Real Salt Lake −1.7519.4%

Real Salt Lake −1.522.8%

Real Salt Lake −1.2528.1%

Real Salt Lake −1.033.4%

Real Salt Lake −0.7538.7%

Real Salt Lake −0.544.0%

Real Salt Lake −0.2550.7%

Real Salt Lake draw no bet (0.0)57.4%

Real Salt Lake +0.2564.0%

Real Salt Lake +0.570.7%

Real Salt Lake +0.7574.9%

Real Salt Lake +1.079.0%

Real Salt Lake +1.587.3%

Real Salt Lake +2.091.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Salt Lake win2.27

Draw3.73

New England Revolution win3.42

Over 2.51.87

Under 2.52.14

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Salt Lake wins by more than 1 goals23%

New England Revolution wins by more than 1 goals13%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match