UEFA Europa League

Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth prediction

Real Sociedad

1 – 2

Full-time

Bournemouth

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Real Sociedad

31%

Draw

28%

Bournemouth

41%

Actual result: Real Sociedad 1 – 2 Bournemouth · Bournemouth winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Real Sociedad, negative favours Bournemouth) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Real Sociedad - Bournemouth)-0.21

Expected total goals2.93

Expected goals Real Sociedad / Bournemouth1.36 / 1.57

Both teams to score (yes / no)60.7% / 39.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.9%

Over 2.5 goals 56.0%

Over 3.5 goals 33.6%

First half

First-half result (Real Sociedad / draw / Bournemouth)25.2% / 43.6% / 31.2%

A goal in the first half71.2%

Two or more in the first half39.9%

Half-time then full-time

Bournemouth lead at half-time then Bournemouth win24.7%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win18.4%

Level at half-time then draw17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Real Sociedad's side

Real Sociedad −2.010.0%

Real Sociedad −1.7512.3%

Real Sociedad −1.514.7%

Real Sociedad −1.2518.8%

Real Sociedad −1.022.9%

Real Sociedad −0.7527.0%

Real Sociedad −0.531.1%

Real Sociedad −0.2538.2%

Real Sociedad draw no bet (0.0)45.2%

Real Sociedad +0.2552.3%

Real Sociedad +0.559.4%

Real Sociedad +0.7564.2%

Real Sociedad +1.069.1%

Real Sociedad +1.578.7%

Real Sociedad +2.085.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Real Sociedad win3.22

Draw3.52

Bournemouth win2.47

Over 2.51.79

Under 2.52.27

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals15%

Bournemouth wins by more than 1 goals21%

Corners

Expected total corners10.1

6.5+ corners in the match56%

Cards

Expected total cards3.1

2.5+ cards in the match61%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match