Brazilian Serie A
Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol prediction
1 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Red Bull Bragantino
58%
Draw
24%
Mirassol
17%
Actual result: Red Bull Bragantino 1 – 1 Mirassol · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Red Bull Bragantino, negative favours Mirassol) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol)+0.93
Expected total goals2.82
Expected goals Red Bull Bragantino / Mirassol1.87 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.7% / 47.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.2%
Over 2.5 goals 53.4%
Over 3.5 goals 31.2%
First half
First-half result (Red Bull Bragantino / draw / Mirassol)42.4% / 41.1% / 16.5%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half37.1%
Half-time then full-time
Red Bull Bragantino lead at half-time then Red Bull Bragantino win37.2%
Level at half-time then Red Bull Bragantino win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw15.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Red Bull Bragantino's side
Red Bull Bragantino −2.025.6%
Red Bull Bragantino −1.7530.2%
Red Bull Bragantino −1.534.8%
Red Bull Bragantino −1.2540.6%
Red Bull Bragantino −1.046.5%
Red Bull Bragantino −0.7552.4%
Red Bull Bragantino −0.558.2%
Red Bull Bragantino −0.2564.3%
Red Bull Bragantino draw no bet (0.0)70.4%
Red Bull Bragantino +0.2576.4%
Red Bull Bragantino +0.582.5%
Red Bull Bragantino +0.7585.3%
Red Bull Bragantino +1.088.2%
Red Bull Bragantino +1.593.8%
Red Bull Bragantino +2.096.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Red Bull Bragantino win1.72
Draw4.12
Mirassol win5.72
Over 2.51.87
Under 2.52.15
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Red Bull Bragantino wins by more than 1 goals35%
Mirassol wins by more than 1 goals6%