Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Red Star
39%
Draw
29%
Metz
32%
Actual result: Red Star 1 – 0 Metz · Red Star winJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Red Star, negative favours Metz) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Red Star - Metz)+0.13
Expected total goals2.61
Expected goals Red Star / Metz1.37 / 1.24
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.5% / 45.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.0%
Over 2.5 goals 48.5%
Over 3.5 goals 26.7%
First half
First-half result (Red Star / draw / Metz)29.5% / 44.9% / 25.7%
A goal in the first half67.9%
Two or more in the first half34.1%
Half-time then full-time
Red Star lead at half-time then Red Star win23.0%
Metz lead at half-time then Metz win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw18.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Red Star's side
Red Star −2.012.6%
Red Star −1.7515.6%
Red Star −1.518.5%
Red Star −1.2523.5%
Red Star −1.028.5%
Red Star −0.7533.5%
Red Star −0.538.5%
Red Star −0.2545.8%
Red Star draw no bet (0.0)53.1%
Red Star +0.2560.4%
Red Star +0.567.6%
Red Star +0.7572.1%
Red Star +1.076.6%
Red Star +1.585.6%
Red Star +2.090.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Red Star win2.60
Draw3.44
Metz win3.09
Over 2.52.06
Under 2.51.94
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Red Star wins by more than 1 goals19%
Metz wins by more than 1 goals14%