Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Remo
46%
Draw
29%
Gremio
25%
Actual result: Remo 1 – 1 Gremio · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Remo, negative favours Gremio) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Remo - Gremio)+0.45
Expected total goals2.48
Expected goals Remo / Gremio1.47 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.0%
Over 2.5 goals 45.0%
Over 3.5 goals 23.8%
First half
First-half result (Remo / draw / Gremio)34.0% / 45.2% / 20.8%
A goal in the first half66.3%
Two or more in the first half31.5%
Half-time then full-time
Remo lead at half-time then Remo win28.2%
Level at half-time then draw18.3%
Level at half-time then Remo win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Remo's side
Remo −2.016.4%
Remo −1.7520.0%
Remo −1.523.6%
Remo −1.2529.3%
Remo −1.035.0%
Remo −0.7540.7%
Remo −0.546.4%
Remo −0.2553.6%
Remo draw no bet (0.0)60.7%
Remo +0.2567.9%
Remo +0.575.0%
Remo +0.7578.9%
Remo +1.082.7%
Remo +1.590.5%
Remo +2.093.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Remo win2.15
Draw3.50
Gremio win4.00
Over 2.52.22
Under 2.51.82
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Remo wins by more than 1 goals24%
Gremio wins by more than 1 goals10%