UEFA Nations League B

Republic of Ireland vs Austria prediction

Republic of Ireland

2 – 2

Full-time

Austria

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Republic of Ireland

25%

Draw

32%

Austria

43%

Actual result: Republic of Ireland 2 – 2 Austria · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 32%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Republic of Ireland, negative favours Austria) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Republic of Ireland - Austria)-0.35

Expected total goals2.20

Expected goals Republic of Ireland / Austria0.92 / 1.28

Both teams to score (yes / no)45.0% / 55.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 66.1%

Over 2.5 goals 37.8%

Over 3.5 goals 18.1%

First half

First-half result (Republic of Ireland / draw / Austria)20.3% / 48.6% / 31.1%

A goal in the first half61.9%

Two or more in the first half27.1%

Half-time then full-time

Austria lead at half-time then Austria win25.7%

Level at half-time then draw21.3%

Level at half-time then Austria win16.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Republic of Ireland's side

Republic of Ireland −2.05.9%

Republic of Ireland −1.757.6%

Republic of Ireland −1.59.3%

Republic of Ireland −1.2513.3%

Republic of Ireland −1.017.3%

Republic of Ireland −0.7521.3%

Republic of Ireland −0.525.4%

Republic of Ireland −0.2533.2%

Republic of Ireland draw no bet (0.0)41.1%

Republic of Ireland +0.2549.0%

Republic of Ireland +0.556.9%

Republic of Ireland +0.7562.6%

Republic of Ireland +1.068.3%

Republic of Ireland +1.579.7%

Republic of Ireland +2.086.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Republic of Ireland win3.94

Draw3.17

Austria win2.32

Over 2.52.65

Under 2.51.61

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Republic of Ireland wins by more than 1 goals9%

Austria wins by more than 1 goals20%

Corners

Expected total corners8.4

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards3.7

2.5+ cards in the match51%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match