UEFA Nations League B
Republic of Ireland vs Israel prediction
1 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Republic of Ireland
49%
Draw
29%
Israel
22%
Actual result: Republic of Ireland 1 – 1 Israel · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Republic of Ireland, negative favours Israel) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Republic of Ireland - Israel)+0.56
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Republic of Ireland / Israel1.50 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 goals 44.1%
Over 3.5 goals 23.0%
First half
First-half result (Republic of Ireland / draw / Israel)35.3% / 45.9% / 18.8%
A goal in the first half65.5%
Two or more in the first half31.2%
Half-time then full-time
Republic of Ireland lead at half-time then Republic of Ireland win29.9%
Level at half-time then draw19.0%
Level at half-time then Republic of Ireland win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Republic of Ireland's side
Republic of Ireland −2.017.9%
Republic of Ireland −1.7521.7%
Republic of Ireland −1.525.6%
Republic of Ireland −1.2531.4%
Republic of Ireland −1.037.2%
Republic of Ireland −0.7543.0%
Republic of Ireland −0.548.8%
Republic of Ireland −0.2556.1%
Republic of Ireland draw no bet (0.0)63.3%
Republic of Ireland +0.2570.6%
Republic of Ireland +0.577.9%
Republic of Ireland +0.7581.4%
Republic of Ireland +1.084.9%
Republic of Ireland +1.591.9%
Republic of Ireland +2.094.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Republic of Ireland win2.05
Draw3.44
Israel win4.52
Over 2.52.27
Under 2.51.79
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Republic of Ireland wins by more than 1 goals26%
Israel wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards4.5
2.5+ cards in the match47%