Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Rizespor
51%
Draw
29%
Alanyaspor
20%
Actual result: Rizespor 0 – 1 Alanyaspor · Alanyaspor winJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rizespor, negative favours Alanyaspor) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Rizespor - Alanyaspor)+0.67
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Rizespor / Alanyaspor1.55 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.8% / 52.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 goals 44.0%
Over 3.5 goals 22.9%
First half
First-half result (Rizespor / draw / Alanyaspor)36.9% / 45.8% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half31.2%
Half-time then full-time
Rizespor lead at half-time then Rizespor win31.8%
Level at half-time then draw18.8%
Level at half-time then Rizespor win18.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Rizespor's side
Rizespor −2.019.5%
Rizespor −1.7523.6%
Rizespor −1.527.7%
Rizespor −1.2533.6%
Rizespor −1.039.5%
Rizespor −0.7545.5%
Rizespor −0.551.4%
Rizespor −0.2558.6%
Rizespor draw no bet (0.0)65.7%
Rizespor +0.2572.9%
Rizespor +0.580.1%
Rizespor +0.7583.3%
Rizespor +1.086.5%
Rizespor +1.592.9%
Rizespor +2.095.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Rizespor win1.95
Draw3.49
Alanyaspor win5.02
Over 2.52.28
Under 2.51.78
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Rizespor wins by more than 1 goals28%
Alanyaspor wins by more than 1 goals7%