Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Roma
58%
Draw
25%
Atalanta
17%
Actual result: Roma 2 – 1 Atalanta · Roma winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Roma, negative favours Atalanta) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Roma - Atalanta)+0.93
Expected total goals2.86
Expected goals Roma / Atalanta1.90 / 0.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.0% / 46.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.3%
Over 2.5 goals 54.6%
Over 3.5 goals 32.2%
First half
First-half result (Roma / draw / Atalanta)42.2% / 41.4% / 16.5%
A goal in the first half71.1%
Two or more in the first half38.2%
Half-time then full-time
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win37.1%
Level at half-time then Roma win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw15.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Roma's side
Roma −2.025.8%
Roma −1.7530.3%
Roma −1.534.9%
Roma −1.2540.6%
Roma −1.046.4%
Roma −0.7552.1%
Roma −0.557.8%
Roma −0.2564.0%
Roma draw no bet (0.0)70.2%
Roma +0.2576.4%
Roma +0.582.6%
Roma +0.7585.3%
Roma +1.088.1%
Roma +1.593.6%
Roma +2.096.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Roma win1.73
Draw4.05
Atalanta win5.74
Over 2.51.83
Under 2.52.20
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Roma wins by more than 1 goals35%
Atalanta wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%