Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Roma
35%
Draw
29%
Inter
36%
Actual result: Roma 2 – 2 Inter · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Roma, negative favours Inter) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Roma - Inter)-0.03
Expected total goals2.89
Expected goals Roma / Inter1.43 / 1.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.6% / 39.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.6%
Over 2.5 goals 55.1%
Over 3.5 goals 32.7%
First half
First-half result (Roma / draw / Inter)27.3% / 44.5% / 28.2%
A goal in the first half70.5%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Inter lead at half-time then Inter win21.7%
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win20.7%
Level at half-time then draw18.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Roma's side
Roma −2.011.7%
Roma −1.7514.4%
Roma −1.517.1%
Roma −1.2521.5%
Roma −1.025.8%
Roma −0.7530.2%
Roma −0.534.6%
Roma −0.2541.9%
Roma draw no bet (0.0)49.2%
Roma +0.2556.6%
Roma +0.563.9%
Roma +0.7568.4%
Roma +1.072.9%
Roma +1.581.8%
Roma +2.087.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Roma win2.89
Draw3.41
Inter win2.77
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.52.23
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Roma wins by more than 1 goals17%
Inter wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match43%