Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Romania
38%
Draw
31%
Bosnia
31%
Actual result: Romania 2 – 4 Bosnia · Bosnia winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Romania, negative favours Bosnia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Romania - Bosnia)+0.16
Expected total goals2.38
Expected goals Romania / Bosnia1.27 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.9% / 50.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.4%
Over 2.5 goals 42.4%
Over 3.5 goals 21.6%
First half
First-half result (Romania / draw / Bosnia)28.6% / 47.4% / 24.0%
A goal in the first half64.4%
Two or more in the first half30.3%
Half-time then full-time
Romania lead at half-time then Romania win22.7%
Level at half-time then draw20.4%
Bosnia lead at half-time then Bosnia win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Romania's side
Romania −2.011.9%
Romania −1.7514.8%
Romania −1.517.7%
Romania −1.2522.8%
Romania −1.028.0%
Romania −0.7533.1%
Romania −0.538.2%
Romania −0.2546.0%
Romania draw no bet (0.0)53.8%
Romania +0.2561.6%
Romania +0.569.4%
Romania +0.7573.8%
Romania +1.078.3%
Romania +1.587.1%
Romania +2.091.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Romania win2.62
Draw3.20
Bosnia win3.27
Over 2.52.36
Under 2.51.74
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Romania wins by more than 1 goals18%
Bosnia wins by more than 1 goals13%