Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Romania
19%
Draw
23%
Sweden
58%
Actual result: Romania 0 – 1 Sweden · Sweden winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Romania, negative favours Sweden) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Romania - Sweden)-0.93
Expected total goals3.01
Expected goals Romania / Sweden1.04 / 1.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.6% / 43.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.2%
Over 2.5 goals 58.0%
Over 3.5 goals 35.6%
First half
First-half result (Romania / draw / Sweden)17.6% / 39.5% / 42.8%
A goal in the first half73.3%
Two or more in the first half40.3%
Half-time then full-time
Sweden lead at half-time then Sweden win37.3%
Level at half-time then Sweden win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw13.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Romania's side
Romania −2.04.5%
Romania −1.755.7%
Romania −1.57.0%
Romania −1.259.9%
Romania −1.012.8%
Romania −0.7515.7%
Romania −0.518.6%
Romania −0.2524.5%
Romania draw no bet (0.0)30.3%
Romania +0.2536.1%
Romania +0.542.0%
Romania +0.7547.7%
Romania +1.053.4%
Romania +1.564.7%
Romania +2.073.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Romania win5.37
Draw4.29
Sweden win1.72
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.38
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Romania wins by more than 1 goals7%
Sweden wins by more than 1 goals35%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match59%