Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
San Marino
2%
Draw
4%
Albania
94%
Actual result: San Marino 0 – 3 Albania · Albania winJarvis gave this outcome: 94% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours San Marino, negative favours Albania) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (San Marino - Albania)-3.20
Expected total goals3.72
Expected goals San Marino / Albania0.26 / 3.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)22.0% / 78.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 88.1%
Over 2.5 goals 71.8%
Over 3.5 goals 51.1%
First half
First-half result (San Marino / draw / Albania)3.3% / 21.0% / 75.8%
A goal in the first half82.0%
Two or more in the first half49.2%
Half-time then full-time
Albania lead at half-time then Albania win74.7%
Level at half-time then Albania win17.1%
Level at half-time then draw3.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from San Marino's side
San Marino −2.00.1%
San Marino −1.750.1%
San Marino −1.50.1%
San Marino −1.250.5%
San Marino −1.00.8%
San Marino −0.751.2%
San Marino −0.51.5%
San Marino −0.252.6%
San Marino draw no bet (0.0)3.7%
San Marino +0.254.8%
San Marino +0.55.8%
San Marino +0.759.1%
San Marino +1.012.5%
San Marino +1.519.1%
San Marino +2.028.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
San Marino win64.99
Draw23.28
Albania win1.06
Over 2.51.39
Under 2.53.55
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
San Marino wins by more than 1 goals0%
Albania wins by more than 1 goals81%