Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
San Marino
2%
Draw
7%
Finland
91%
Actual result: San Marino 0 – 7 Finland · Finland winJarvis gave this outcome: 91% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours San Marino, negative favours Finland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (San Marino - Finland)-2.74
Expected total goals3.36
Expected goals San Marino / Finland0.31 / 3.05
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.1% / 74.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.5%
Over 2.5 goals 65.2%
Over 3.5 goals 43.2%
First half
First-half result (San Marino / draw / Finland)4.1% / 25.6% / 70.3%
A goal in the first half78.4%
Two or more in the first half44.1%
Half-time then full-time
Finland lead at half-time then Finland win68.9%
Level at half-time then Finland win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw5.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from San Marino's side
San Marino −2.00.1%
San Marino −1.750.2%
San Marino −1.50.3%
San Marino −1.250.8%
San Marino −1.01.3%
San Marino −0.751.8%
San Marino −0.52.3%
San Marino −0.254.0%
San Marino draw no bet (0.0)5.8%
San Marino +0.257.5%
San Marino +0.59.2%
San Marino +0.7513.4%
San Marino +1.017.7%
San Marino +1.526.1%
San Marino +2.037.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
San Marino win43.82
Draw14.37
Finland win1.10
Over 2.51.53
Under 2.52.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
San Marino wins by more than 1 goals0%
Finland wins by more than 1 goals74%