Brazilian Serie A

Santos vs Chapecoense prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Santos vs Chapecoense (Serie A), 26/07/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Santos 71%, the draw 18% and Chapecoense 10%; the actual result had a 18% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Santos

71%

Draw

18%

Chapecoense

10%

Actual result: Santos 2 – 2 Chapecoense · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 18%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Santos, negative favours Chapecoense) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Santos - Chapecoense)+1.52

Expected total goals2.99

Expected goals Santos / Chapecoense2.25 / 0.74

Both teams to score (yes / no)46.9% / 53.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.3%

Over 2.5 goals 57.4%

Over 3.5 goals 35.0%

First half

First-half result (Santos / draw / Chapecoense)52.2% / 36.3% / 11.6%

A goal in the first half73.6%

Two or more in the first half39.3%

Half-time then full-time

Santos lead at half-time then Santos win48.2%

Level at half-time then Santos win20.8%

Level at half-time then draw11.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Santos's side

Santos −2.037.4%

Santos −1.7542.7%

Santos −1.548.1%

Santos −1.2553.9%

Santos −1.059.8%

Santos −0.7565.6%

Santos −0.571.5%

Santos −0.2576.0%

Santos draw no bet (0.0)80.6%

Santos +0.2585.2%

Santos +0.589.7%

Santos +0.7591.6%

Santos +1.093.4%

Santos +1.597.1%

Santos +2.098.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Santos win1.40

Draw5.49

Chapecoense win9.72

Over 2.51.74

Under 2.52.35

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Santos wins by more than 1 goals48%

Chapecoense wins by more than 1 goals3%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match