Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Sassuolo
21%
Draw
27%
AC Milan
52%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sassuolo, negative favours AC Milan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sassuolo - AC Milan)-0.70
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Sassuolo / AC Milan1.05 / 1.75
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.2% / 44.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.4%
Over 2.5 goals 53.0%
Over 3.5 goals 30.8%
First half
First-half result (Sassuolo / draw / AC Milan)18.8% / 42.9% / 38.3%
A goal in the first half70.1%
Two or more in the first half37.3%
Half-time then full-time
AC Milan lead at half-time then AC Milan win32.8%
Level at half-time then AC Milan win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sassuolo's side
Sassuolo −2.05.3%
Sassuolo −1.756.8%
Sassuolo −1.58.3%
Sassuolo −1.2511.5%
Sassuolo −1.014.7%
Sassuolo −0.7517.9%
Sassuolo −0.521.1%
Sassuolo −0.2527.8%
Sassuolo draw no bet (0.0)34.5%
Sassuolo +0.2541.2%
Sassuolo +0.547.8%
Sassuolo +0.7553.4%
Sassuolo +1.059.0%
Sassuolo +1.570.2%
Sassuolo +2.078.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sassuolo win4.73
Draw3.74
AC Milan win1.92
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sassuolo wins by more than 1 goals8%
AC Milan wins by more than 1 goals30%
Corners
Expected total corners8.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%