Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
SE Palmeiras
72%
Cerro Porteno
8%
Actual result: SE Palmeiras 1 – 1 Cerro Porteno · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours SE Palmeiras, negative favours Cerro Porteno) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (SE Palmeiras - Cerro Porteno)+1.41
Expected total goals2.34
Expected goals SE Palmeiras / Cerro Porteno1.88 / 0.47
Both teams to score (yes / no)31.6% / 68.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.8%
Over 2.5 goals 41.5%
Over 3.5 goals 20.9%
First half
First-half result (SE Palmeiras / draw / Cerro Porteno)49.9% / 41.2% / 8.9%
A goal in the first half65.2%
Two or more in the first half28.4%
Half-time then full-time
SE Palmeiras lead at half-time then SE Palmeiras win46.7%
Level at half-time then SE Palmeiras win22.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from SE Palmeiras's side
SE Palmeiras −2.033.2%
SE Palmeiras −1.7538.8%
SE Palmeiras −1.544.4%
SE Palmeiras −1.2551.2%
SE Palmeiras −1.058.0%
SE Palmeiras −0.7564.8%
SE Palmeiras −0.571.6%
SE Palmeiras −0.2576.6%
SE Palmeiras draw no bet (0.0)81.6%
SE Palmeiras +0.2586.6%
SE Palmeiras +0.591.6%
SE Palmeiras +0.7593.3%
SE Palmeiras +1.095.0%
SE Palmeiras +1.598.4%
SE Palmeiras +2.099.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
SE Palmeiras win1.40
Draw5.01
Cerro Porteno win11.84
Over 2.52.41
Under 2.51.71
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
SE Palmeiras wins by more than 1 goals44%
Cerro Porteno wins by more than 1 goals2%
