Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Serbia
32%
Draw
31%
Greece
37%
Actual result: Serbia 1 – 2 Greece · Greece winJarvis gave this outcome: 37% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Serbia, negative favours Greece) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Serbia - Greece)-0.09
Expected total goals2.27
Expected goals Serbia / Greece1.09 / 1.18
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.3% / 52.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 goals 39.6%
Over 3.5 goals 19.5%
First half
First-half result (Serbia / draw / Greece)24.8% / 47.8% / 27.4%
A goal in the first half63.1%
Two or more in the first half28.1%
Half-time then full-time
Greece lead at half-time then Greece win21.4%
Level at half-time then draw20.6%
Serbia lead at half-time then Serbia win18.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Serbia's side
Serbia −2.08.7%
Serbia −1.7511.0%
Serbia −1.513.3%
Serbia −1.2518.1%
Serbia −1.022.8%
Serbia −0.7527.6%
Serbia −0.532.3%
Serbia −0.2540.1%
Serbia draw no bet (0.0)47.9%
Serbia +0.2555.6%
Serbia +0.563.4%
Serbia +0.7568.6%
Serbia +1.073.7%
Serbia +1.584.0%
Serbia +2.089.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Serbia win3.09
Draw3.21
Greece win2.73
Over 2.52.53
Under 2.51.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Serbia wins by more than 1 goals13%
Greece wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corners
Expected total corners8.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards4.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%