Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Serbia
12%
Draw
20%
Netherlands
69%
Actual result: Serbia 1 – 2 Netherlands · Netherlands winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Serbia, negative favours Netherlands) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Serbia - Netherlands)-1.42
Expected total goals3.06
Expected goals Serbia / Netherlands0.82 / 2.24
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.7% / 49.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.6%
Over 2.5 goals 58.9%
Over 3.5 goals 36.5%
First half
First-half result (Serbia / draw / Netherlands)12.5% / 37.2% / 50.3%
A goal in the first half73.9%
Two or more in the first half40.7%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win46.1%
Level at half-time then Netherlands win20.5%
Level at half-time then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Serbia's side
Serbia −2.02.2%
Serbia −1.752.9%
Serbia −1.53.6%
Serbia −1.255.6%
Serbia −1.07.6%
Serbia −0.759.5%
Serbia −0.511.5%
Serbia −0.2516.4%
Serbia draw no bet (0.0)21.3%
Serbia +0.2526.3%
Serbia +0.531.2%
Serbia +0.7536.9%
Serbia +1.042.6%
Serbia +1.554.1%
Serbia +2.064.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Serbia win8.68
Draw5.09
Netherlands win1.45
Over 2.51.70
Under 2.52.43
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Serbia wins by more than 1 goals4%
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals46%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%