Hong Kong 1st Division League

Sham Shui Po vs Dreams Metro Gallery prediction

12:00, 20/09

Result not verified

Outcome probability

Jarvis prediction from BEFORE kickoff. The match has finished but we have not verified the score yet, so there is no comparison below.

Result not verified

Sham Shui Po

67%

Draw

11%

Dreams Metro Gallery

22%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sham Shui Po, negative favours Dreams Metro Gallery) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sham Shui Po - Dreams Metro Gallery)+1.92

Expected total goals10.08

Expected goals Sham Shui Po / Dreams Metro Gallery6.00 / 4.08

Both teams to score (yes / no)98.1% / 1.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 100.0%

Over 2.5 goals 99.7%

Over 3.5 goals 99.0%

First half

First-half result (Sham Shui Po / draw / Dreams Metro Gallery)55.3% / 20.1% / 24.6%

A goal in the first half97.9%

Two or more in the first half95.1%

Half-time then full-time

Sham Shui Po lead at half-time then Sham Shui Po win47.9%

Dreams Metro Gallery lead at half-time then Dreams Metro Gallery win13.4%

Level at half-time then Sham Shui Po win11.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sham Shui Po's side

Sham Shui Po −2.048.6%

Sham Shui Po −1.7551.7%

Sham Shui Po −1.554.9%

Sham Shui Po −1.2558.0%

Sham Shui Po −1.061.0%

Sham Shui Po −0.7564.1%

Sham Shui Po −0.567.2%

Sham Shui Po −0.2569.9%

Sham Shui Po draw no bet (0.0)72.5%

Sham Shui Po +0.2575.2%

Sham Shui Po +0.577.9%

Sham Shui Po +0.7580.0%

Sham Shui Po +1.082.1%

Sham Shui Po +1.586.3%

Sham Shui Po +2.089.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sham Shui Po win1.49

Draw9.32

Dreams Metro Gallery win4.53

Over 2.51.00

Under 2.5385.46

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sham Shui Po wins by more than 1 goals49%

Dreams Metro Gallery wins by more than 1 goals14%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match