Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bolton
16%
Actual result: Sheff Utd 3 – 2 Bolton · Sheff Utd winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sheff Utd, negative favours Bolton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sheff Utd - Bolton)+0.98
Expected total goals2.73
Expected goals Sheff Utd / Bolton1.86 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.5%
Over 2.5 goals 51.4%
Over 3.5 goals 29.3%
First half
First-half result (Sheff Utd / draw / Bolton)43.1% / 41.3% / 15.6%
A goal in the first half70.0%
Two or more in the first half35.6%
Half-time then full-time
Sheff Utd lead at half-time then Sheff Utd win38.2%
Level at half-time then Sheff Utd win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw15.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sheff Utd's side
Sheff Utd −2.026.2%
Sheff Utd −1.7530.9%
Sheff Utd −1.535.5%
Sheff Utd −1.2541.6%
Sheff Utd −1.047.6%
Sheff Utd −0.7553.6%
Sheff Utd −0.559.6%
Sheff Utd −0.2565.6%
Sheff Utd draw no bet (0.0)71.6%
Sheff Utd +0.2577.6%
Sheff Utd +0.583.6%
Sheff Utd +0.7586.3%
Sheff Utd +1.089.1%
Sheff Utd +1.594.5%
Sheff Utd +2.096.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sheff Utd win1.68
Draw4.17
Bolton win6.10
Over 2.51.95
Under 2.52.06
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sheff Utd wins by more than 1 goals36%
Bolton wins by more than 1 goals5%
