Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Slovakia
80%
Draw
14%
Kazakhstan
6%
Actual result: Slovakia 2 – 1 Kazakhstan · Slovakia winJarvis gave this outcome: 80% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Slovakia, negative favours Kazakhstan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Slovakia - Kazakhstan)+1.90
Expected total goals2.96
Expected goals Slovakia / Kazakhstan2.43 / 0.53
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.4% / 62.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.3%
Over 2.5 goals 56.7%
Over 3.5 goals 34.3%
First half
First-half result (Slovakia / draw / Kazakhstan)58.3% / 33.5% / 8.2%
A goal in the first half73.7%
Two or more in the first half38.3%
Half-time then full-time
Slovakia lead at half-time then Slovakia win55.5%
Level at half-time then Slovakia win21.5%
Level at half-time then draw9.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Slovakia's side
Slovakia −2.045.2%
Slovakia −1.7551.0%
Slovakia −1.556.7%
Slovakia −1.2562.4%
Slovakia −1.068.1%
Slovakia −0.7573.8%
Slovakia −0.579.5%
Slovakia −0.2583.1%
Slovakia draw no bet (0.0)86.6%
Slovakia +0.2590.1%
Slovakia +0.593.6%
Slovakia +0.7594.9%
Slovakia +1.096.2%
Slovakia +1.598.7%
Slovakia +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Slovakia win1.26
Draw7.10
Kazakhstan win15.68
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.31
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Slovakia wins by more than 1 goals57%
Kazakhstan wins by more than 1 goals1%