Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Slovenia
60%
Draw
27%
North Macedonia
13%
Actual result: Slovenia 2 – 0 North Macedonia · Slovenia winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Slovenia, negative favours North Macedonia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Slovenia - North Macedonia)+0.97
Expected total goals2.09
Expected goals Slovenia / North Macedonia1.53 / 0.56
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.4% / 65.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 62.6%
Over 2.5 goals 34.7%
Over 3.5 goals 15.9%
First half
First-half result (Slovenia / draw / North Macedonia)41.2% / 47.3% / 11.6%
A goal in the first half60.3%
Two or more in the first half24.7%
Half-time then full-time
Slovenia lead at half-time then Slovenia win37.5%
Level at half-time then Slovenia win21.7%
Level at half-time then draw19.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Slovenia's side
Slovenia −2.023.3%
Slovenia −1.7528.1%
Slovenia −1.532.8%
Slovenia −1.2539.7%
Slovenia −1.046.5%
Slovenia −0.7553.4%
Slovenia −0.560.3%
Slovenia −0.2567.1%
Slovenia draw no bet (0.0)73.9%
Slovenia +0.2580.7%
Slovenia +0.587.5%
Slovenia +0.7589.9%
Slovenia +1.092.2%
Slovenia +1.596.9%
Slovenia +2.098.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Slovenia win1.66
Draw3.67
North Macedonia win7.99
Over 2.52.88
Under 2.51.53
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Slovenia wins by more than 1 goals33%
North Macedonia wins by more than 1 goals3%