Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Slovenia
37%
Draw
31%
Scotland
32%
Actual result: Slovenia 0 – 0 Scotland · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Slovenia, negative favours Scotland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Slovenia - Scotland)+0.10
Expected total goals2.24
Expected goals Slovenia / Scotland1.17 / 1.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.6% / 53.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.8%
Over 2.5 goals 38.7%
Over 3.5 goals 18.8%
First half
First-half result (Slovenia / draw / Scotland)27.5% / 48.2% / 24.3%
A goal in the first half62.5%
Two or more in the first half27.6%
Half-time then full-time
Slovenia lead at half-time then Slovenia win21.6%
Level at half-time then draw21.0%
Scotland lead at half-time then Scotland win18.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Slovenia's side
Slovenia −2.010.7%
Slovenia −1.7513.4%
Slovenia −1.516.1%
Slovenia −1.2521.3%
Slovenia −1.026.5%
Slovenia −0.7531.7%
Slovenia −0.536.9%
Slovenia −0.2544.8%
Slovenia draw no bet (0.0)52.6%
Slovenia +0.2560.5%
Slovenia +0.568.4%
Slovenia +0.7573.0%
Slovenia +1.077.7%
Slovenia +1.587.1%
Slovenia +2.091.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Slovenia win2.71
Draw3.18
Scotland win3.16
Over 2.52.58
Under 2.51.63
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Slovenia wins by more than 1 goals16%
Scotland wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match57%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match54%