Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
South Korea
36%
Draw
30%
Czech Republic
33%
Actual result: South Korea 2 – 1 Czech Republic · South Korea winJarvis gave this outcome: 36% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours South Korea, negative favours Czech Republic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (South Korea - Czech Republic)+0.06
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals South Korea / Czech Republic1.28 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.6% / 47.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.0%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (South Korea / draw / Czech Republic)27.8% / 46.3% / 25.9%
A goal in the first half66.2%
Two or more in the first half32.4%
Half-time then full-time
South Korea lead at half-time then South Korea win21.5%
Czech Republic lead at half-time then Czech Republic win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw19.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from South Korea's side
South Korea −2.011.3%
South Korea −1.7514.1%
South Korea −1.516.8%
South Korea −1.2521.7%
South Korea −1.026.6%
South Korea −0.7531.4%
South Korea −0.536.3%
South Korea −0.2543.9%
South Korea draw no bet (0.0)51.5%
South Korea +0.2559.1%
South Korea +0.566.7%
South Korea +0.7571.3%
South Korea +1.075.9%
South Korea +1.585.1%
South Korea +2.090.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
South Korea win2.76
Draw3.29
Czech Republic win3.00
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
14.5%
0–0
9.9%
1–0
8.8%
0–1
8.3%
2–1
8.2%
1–2
7.8%
Goal margin
South Korea wins by more than 1 goals17%
Czech Republic wins by more than 1 goals15%