Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Southampton
52%
Draw
26%
Swansea
22%
Actual result: Southampton 3 – 1 Swansea · Southampton winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Southampton, negative favours Swansea) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Southampton - Swansea)+0.67
Expected total goals2.79
Expected goals Southampton / Swansea1.73 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.8% / 45.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.8%
Over 2.5 goals 52.7%
Over 3.5 goals 30.5%
First half
First-half result (Southampton / draw / Swansea)38.3% / 42.2% / 19.5%
A goal in the first half70.4%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Southampton lead at half-time then Southampton win32.5%
Level at half-time then Southampton win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Southampton's side
Southampton −2.021.1%
Southampton −1.7525.2%
Southampton −1.529.2%
Southampton −1.2534.9%
Southampton −1.040.6%
Southampton −0.7546.3%
Southampton −0.552.0%
Southampton −0.2558.5%
Southampton draw no bet (0.0)65.0%
Southampton +0.2571.5%
Southampton +0.578.0%
Southampton +0.7581.3%
Southampton +1.084.7%
Southampton +1.591.5%
Southampton +2.094.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Southampton win1.92
Draw3.85
Swansea win4.54
Over 2.51.90
Under 2.52.12
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Southampton wins by more than 1 goals29%
Swansea wins by more than 1 goals9%