FIFA World Cup
Spain vs Argentina prediction
Spain
1 – 0
Full-time
Argentina
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
42%
Draw
33%
Argentina
25%
Actual result: Spain 1 – 0 Argentina · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Argentina) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Argentina)+0.35
Expected total goals2.28
Expected goals Spain / Argentina1.31 / 0.96
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.9% / 52.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.0%
Over 2.5 goals 39.8%
Over 3.5 goals 19.6%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Argentina)30.6% / 49.4% / 20.1%
A goal in the first half62.3%
Two or more in the first half29.2%
Half-time then full-time
Spain ahead then Spain win25.4%
level then draw22.2%
level then Spain win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Spain
Spain give 2 trái (−2.0)14.0%
Spain give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)17.3%
Spain give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)20.6%
Spain give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)26.0%
Spain give 1 trái (−1.0)31.3%
Spain give 3/4 trái (−0.75)36.7%
Spain give nửa trái (−0.5)42.0%
Spain give 1/4 trái (−0.25)50.3%
Level ball (0.0)58.6%
Spain receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)66.9%
Spain receive nửa trái (+0.5)75.2%
Spain receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)78.9%
Spain receive 1 trái (+1.0)82.7%
Spain receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)90.2%
Spain receive 2 trái (+2.0)93.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win2.38
Draw3.02
Argentina win4.03
Over 2.52.51
Under 2.51.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals21%
Argentina wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners8.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match42%