FIFA World Cup
Spain vs Belgium prediction
Spain
2 – 1
Full-time
Belgium
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
60%
Draw
25%
Belgium
15%
Actual result: Spain 2 – 1 Belgium · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Belgium) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Belgium)+1.02
Expected total goals2.70
Expected goals Spain / Belgium1.86 / 0.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.5% / 50.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.6%
Over 2.5 goals 50.7%
Over 3.5 goals 28.7%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Belgium)43.1% / 42.3% / 14.6%
A goal in the first half69.1%
Two or more in the first half35.6%
Half-time then full-time
Spain ahead then Spain win38.5%
level then Spain win20.0%
level then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Spain
Spain give 2 trái (−2.0)26.7%
Spain give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)31.5%
Spain give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)36.2%
Spain give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)42.2%
Spain give 1 trái (−1.0)48.1%
Spain give 3/4 trái (−0.75)54.0%
Spain give nửa trái (−0.5)60.0%
Spain give 1/4 trái (−0.25)66.2%
Level ball (0.0)72.4%
Spain receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)78.6%
Spain receive nửa trái (+0.5)84.9%
Spain receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)87.4%
Spain receive 1 trái (+1.0)89.9%
Spain receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)94.9%
Spain receive 2 trái (+2.0)96.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win1.67
Draw4.02
Belgium win6.61
Over 2.51.97
Under 2.52.03
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals36%
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match42%