Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
81%
Draw
12%
Croatia
7%
Actual result: Spain 4 – 1 Croatia · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Croatia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Croatia)+2.09
Expected total goals3.38
Expected goals Spain / Croatia2.74 / 0.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.2% / 55.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.8%
Over 2.5 goals 65.7%
Over 3.5 goals 43.8%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Croatia)61.3% / 29.5% / 9.1%
A goal in the first half78.6%
Two or more in the first half44.6%
Half-time then full-time
Spain lead at half-time then Spain win58.2%
Level at half-time then Spain win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw7.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Spain's side
Spain −2.049.7%
Spain −1.7555.2%
Spain −1.560.7%
Spain −1.2565.9%
Spain −1.071.1%
Spain −0.7576.2%
Spain −0.581.4%
Spain −0.2584.4%
Spain draw no bet (0.0)87.4%
Spain +0.2590.4%
Spain +0.593.4%
Spain +0.7594.7%
Spain +1.095.9%
Spain +1.598.5%
Spain +2.099.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win1.23
Draw8.33
Croatia win15.09
Over 2.51.52
Under 2.52.92
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals61%
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match61%