Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
93%
Draw
5%
Czech Republic
3%
Actual result: Spain 3 – 1 Czech Republic · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 93% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Czech Republic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Czech Republic)+3.18
Expected total goals4.13
Expected goals Spain / Czech Republic3.66 / 0.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)36.5% / 63.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 91.2%
Over 2.5 goals 78.1%
Over 3.5 goals 59.2%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Czech Republic)75.1% / 19.4% / 5.5%
A goal in the first half85.5%
Two or more in the first half54.4%
Half-time then full-time
Spain lead at half-time then Spain win73.4%
Level at half-time then Spain win15.6%
Czech Republic lead at half-time then Spain win2.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Spain's side
Spain −2.070.1%
Spain −1.7574.8%
Spain −1.579.4%
Spain −1.2582.7%
Spain −1.086.0%
Spain −0.7589.3%
Spain −0.592.6%
Spain −0.2593.8%
Spain draw no bet (0.0)95.0%
Spain +0.2596.2%
Spain +0.597.4%
Spain +0.7598.0%
Spain +1.098.5%
Spain +1.599.6%
Spain +2.099.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win1.08
Draw20.96
Czech Republic win38.62
Over 2.51.28
Under 2.54.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals79%
Czech Republic wins by more than 1 goals0%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards2.1
2.5+ cards in the match35%