Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sporting Lisbon
83%
Draw
10%
Arouca
6%
Actual result: Sporting Lisbon 2 – 2 Arouca · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 10%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Lisbon, negative favours Arouca) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sporting Lisbon - Arouca)+2.22
Expected total goals3.49
Expected goals Sporting Lisbon / Arouca2.85 / 0.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.5% / 56.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.6%
Over 2.5 goals 67.7%
Over 3.5 goals 46.0%
First half
First-half result (Sporting Lisbon / draw / Arouca)63.6% / 27.4% / 9.0%
A goal in the first half80.1%
Two or more in the first half45.6%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win60.5%
Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw6.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sporting Lisbon's side
Sporting Lisbon −2.052.4%
Sporting Lisbon −1.7557.9%
Sporting Lisbon −1.563.4%
Sporting Lisbon −1.2568.4%
Sporting Lisbon −1.073.4%
Sporting Lisbon −0.7578.4%
Sporting Lisbon −0.583.4%
Sporting Lisbon −0.2586.0%
Sporting Lisbon draw no bet (0.0)88.6%
Sporting Lisbon +0.2591.2%
Sporting Lisbon +0.593.8%
Sporting Lisbon +0.7595.0%
Sporting Lisbon +1.096.2%
Sporting Lisbon +1.598.7%
Sporting Lisbon +2.099.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sporting Lisbon win1.20
Draw9.66
Arouca win16.00
Over 2.51.48
Under 2.53.09
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals63%
Arouca wins by more than 1 goals1%