Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting Lisbon vs CD Nacional Funchal prediction
2 – 0
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sporting Lisbon
85%
Draw
10%
CD Nacional Funchal
5%
Actual result: Sporting Lisbon 2 – 0 CD Nacional Funchal · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Lisbon, negative favours CD Nacional Funchal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sporting Lisbon - CD Nacional Funchal)+2.35
Expected total goals3.57
Expected goals Sporting Lisbon / CD Nacional Funchal2.96 / 0.61
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.8% / 57.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.7%
Over 2.5 goals 69.2%
Over 3.5 goals 47.8%
First half
First-half result (Sporting Lisbon / draw / CD Nacional Funchal)65.0% / 26.9% / 8.1%
A goal in the first half80.5%
Two or more in the first half47.1%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win62.3%
Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw5.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sporting Lisbon's side
Sporting Lisbon −2.055.1%
Sporting Lisbon −1.7560.5%
Sporting Lisbon −1.565.9%
Sporting Lisbon −1.2570.6%
Sporting Lisbon −1.075.4%
Sporting Lisbon −0.7580.1%
Sporting Lisbon −0.584.8%
Sporting Lisbon −0.2587.3%
Sporting Lisbon draw no bet (0.0)89.8%
Sporting Lisbon +0.2592.2%
Sporting Lisbon +0.594.7%
Sporting Lisbon +0.7595.7%
Sporting Lisbon +1.096.8%
Sporting Lisbon +1.598.9%
Sporting Lisbon +2.099.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sporting Lisbon win1.18
Draw10.12
CD Nacional Funchal win18.85
Over 2.51.45
Under 2.53.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals66%
CD Nacional Funchal wins by more than 1 goals1%