Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
St Johnstone
13%
Draw
19%
Celtic
68%
Actual result: St Johnstone 0 – 1 Celtic · Celtic winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours St Johnstone, negative favours Celtic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (St Johnstone - Celtic)-1.40
Expected total goals3.22
Expected goals St Johnstone / Celtic0.91 / 2.31
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.3% / 45.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.7%
Over 2.5 goals 62.4%
Over 3.5 goals 40.1%
First half
First-half result (St Johnstone / draw / Celtic)13.7% / 36.0% / 50.3%
A goal in the first half75.8%
Two or more in the first half43.2%
Half-time then full-time
Celtic lead at half-time then Celtic win45.8%
Level at half-time then Celtic win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw11.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from St Johnstone's side
St Johnstone −2.02.6%
St Johnstone −1.753.4%
St Johnstone −1.54.2%
St Johnstone −1.256.3%
St Johnstone −1.08.4%
St Johnstone −0.7510.5%
St Johnstone −0.512.6%
St Johnstone −0.2517.4%
St Johnstone draw no bet (0.0)22.2%
St Johnstone +0.2527.0%
St Johnstone +0.531.8%
St Johnstone +0.7537.4%
St Johnstone +1.043.0%
St Johnstone +1.554.2%
St Johnstone +2.064.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
St Johnstone win7.92
Draw5.21
Celtic win1.47
Over 2.51.60
Under 2.52.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
St Johnstone wins by more than 1 goals4%
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals46%
Corners
Expected total corners10.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards2.5
2.5+ cards in the match46%