Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
St Mirren
13%
Draw
18%
Celtic
68%
Actual result: St Mirren 1 – 2 Celtic · Celtic winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours St Mirren, negative favours Celtic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (St Mirren - Celtic)-1.42
Expected total goals3.41
Expected goals St Mirren / Celtic1.00 / 2.42
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.0% / 42.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.0%
Over 2.5 goals 66.3%
Over 3.5 goals 44.5%
First half
First-half result (St Mirren / draw / Celtic)14.6% / 34.7% / 50.8%
A goal in the first half77.8%
Two or more in the first half46.1%
Half-time then full-time
Celtic lead at half-time then Celtic win46.0%
Level at half-time then Celtic win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw10.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from St Mirren's side
St Mirren −2.03.0%
St Mirren −1.753.8%
St Mirren −1.54.7%
St Mirren −1.256.9%
St Mirren −1.09.0%
St Mirren −0.7511.2%
St Mirren −0.513.4%
St Mirren −0.2518.0%
St Mirren draw no bet (0.0)22.6%
St Mirren +0.2527.3%
St Mirren +0.531.9%
St Mirren +0.7537.3%
St Mirren +1.042.8%
St Mirren +1.553.7%
St Mirren +2.063.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
St Mirren win7.46
Draw5.41
Celtic win1.47
Over 2.51.51
Under 2.52.97
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
St Mirren wins by more than 1 goals5%
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals46%
Corners
Expected total corners10.5
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards1.6
2.5+ cards in the match21%