Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Stevenage
27%
Draw
29%
Luton
44%
Actual result: Stevenage 2 – 1 Luton · Stevenage winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Stevenage, negative favours Luton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Stevenage - Luton)-0.38
Expected total goals2.58
Expected goals Stevenage / Luton1.10 / 1.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.1% / 46.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 goals 47.6%
Over 3.5 goals 25.9%
First half
First-half result (Stevenage / draw / Luton)22.0% / 45.2% / 32.8%
A goal in the first half67.3%
Two or more in the first half33.7%
Half-time then full-time
Luton lead at half-time then Luton win26.9%
Level at half-time then draw18.4%
Level at half-time then Luton win16.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Stevenage's side
Stevenage −2.07.1%
Stevenage −1.759.0%
Stevenage −1.511.0%
Stevenage −1.2514.9%
Stevenage −1.018.8%
Stevenage −0.7522.7%
Stevenage −0.526.6%
Stevenage −0.2533.9%
Stevenage draw no bet (0.0)41.2%
Stevenage +0.2548.5%
Stevenage +0.555.8%
Stevenage +0.7561.2%
Stevenage +1.066.6%
Stevenage +1.577.3%
Stevenage +2.084.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Stevenage win3.76
Draw3.43
Luton win2.26
Over 2.52.10
Under 2.51.91
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Stevenage wins by more than 1 goals11%
Luton wins by more than 1 goals23%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.2
2.5+ cards in the match37%