Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Stoke
46%
Draw
31%
Charlton
23%
Actual result: Stoke 4 – 0 Charlton · Stoke winJarvis gave this outcome: 46% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Stoke, negative favours Charlton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Stoke - Charlton)+0.47
Expected total goals2.26
Expected goals Stoke / Charlton1.36 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.4% / 54.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.3%
Over 2.5 goals 39.2%
Over 3.5 goals 19.2%
First half
First-half result (Stoke / draw / Charlton)33.2% / 47.7% / 19.1%
A goal in the first half62.8%
Two or more in the first half28.0%
Half-time then full-time
Stoke lead at half-time then Stoke win27.9%
Level at half-time then draw20.5%
Level at half-time then Stoke win17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Stoke's side
Stoke −2.015.7%
Stoke −1.7519.2%
Stoke −1.522.8%
Stoke −1.2528.7%
Stoke −1.034.6%
Stoke −0.7540.4%
Stoke −0.546.3%
Stoke −0.2554.0%
Stoke draw no bet (0.0)61.6%
Stoke +0.2569.2%
Stoke +0.576.9%
Stoke +0.7580.6%
Stoke +1.084.3%
Stoke +1.591.8%
Stoke +2.094.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Stoke win2.16
Draw3.27
Charlton win4.32
Over 2.52.55
Under 2.51.65
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Stoke wins by more than 1 goals23%
Charlton wins by more than 1 goals8%