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Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction

Stoke
2 – 3
Full-time
Middlesbrough

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Stoke
24%
Draw
27%
Middlesbrough
49%
Actual result: Stoke 2 – 3 Middlesbrough · Middlesbrough winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Stoke, negative favours Middlesbrough) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Stoke - Middlesbrough)-0.55
Expected total goals2.75
Expected goals Stoke / Middlesbrough1.10 / 1.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.2% / 44.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.4%
Over 2.5 goals 52.0%
Over 3.5 goals 29.8%
First half
First-half result (Stoke / draw / Middlesbrough)20.8% / 43.0% / 36.3%
A goal in the first half69.9%
Two or more in the first half36.3%
Half-time then full-time
Middlesbrough lead at half-time then Middlesbrough win30.3%
Level at half-time then Middlesbrough win17.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Stoke's side
Stoke −2.06.3%
Stoke −1.758.0%
Stoke −1.59.7%
Stoke −1.2513.3%
Stoke −1.016.9%
Stoke −0.7520.5%
Stoke −0.524.1%
Stoke −0.2530.9%
Stoke draw no bet (0.0)37.6%
Stoke +0.2544.3%
Stoke +0.551.1%
Stoke +0.7556.6%
Stoke +1.062.2%
Stoke +1.573.3%
Stoke +2.080.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Stoke win4.15
Draw3.71
Middlesbrough win2.04
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.08

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Stoke wins by more than 1 goals10%
Middlesbrough wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match40%

Probability trajectory · full match

Match timeline

  1. 48′GoalCallum Brittain (assist: Amario Cozier-Duberry)
  2. 50′Own goalNeto Borges
  3. 51′Yellow cardSebastian Berhalter
  4. 64′SubstitutionRiley McGree on, Sebastian Berhalter off
  5. 64′SubstitutionTommy Conway on, Jeremy Sarmiento off
  6. 67′SubstitutionGeorge Hirst on, Lamine Cisse off
  7. 67′SubstitutionJustin Devenny on, Bae Jun-ho off
  8. 68′Yellow cardLuke Graham
  9. 73′Goalwill lankshear
  10. 77′SubstitutionKyle Joseph on, will lankshear off
  11. 78′SubstitutionMax Arfsten on, Amario Cozier-Duberry off
  12. 79′SubstitutionBosun Lawal on, Junior Tchamadeu off
  13. 79′SubstitutionRobert Bozenik on, El Hadji Soumare off
  14. 79′SubstitutionLuca Bombino on, Eric Junior Bocat off
  15. 85′GoalRobert Bozenik (assist: George Hirst)
  16. 90+1′GoalNeto Borges

Match statistics

StokeMiddlesbrough
34Possession66
0.74Expected goals (xG)2.63
7Total shots19
1Shots on target9
4Corners3
8Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides1
7Saves0
75Pass accuracy (%)88

Top rated players

8.1W. Lankshear · Middlesbrough1 goal
7.9C. Brittain · Middlesbrough1 goal
7.6A. Cozier-Duberry · Middlesbrough1 assist
7.3L. Ayling · Middlesbrough
7.0Neto Borges · Middlesbrough1 goal
6.9A. Morris · Middlesbrough

Stoke vs Middlesbrough lineups

StokeFormation 3-4-3
Coach: M. Robins
Starting XI
1V. JohanssonGK
2B. JohnsonDF
16B. WilmotDF
5L. GrahamDF
22J. TchamadeuMF
27El Hadji Djibril SoumareMF
8E. GalbraithMF
17E. BocatMF
7J. McGlynnFW
11L. CisseFW
10Bae Jun-HoFW
Substitutes
21L. BombinoDF
9R. BozenikFW
13J. DevennyMF
23B. GibsonDF
24J. GriffithsGK
15G. HirstFW
18B. LawalDF
42M. ManhoefFW
4B. PearsonMF
MiddlesbroughFormation 3-4-2-1
Coach: K. Hellberg
Starting XI
1R. VitekGK
12L. AylingDF
4A. PhillipsDF
29A. MalandaDF
2C. BrittainMF
6S. BerhalterMF
10A. MorrisMF
30Neto BorgesMF
11A. Cozier-DuberryMF
16J. SarmientoMF
7W. LankshearFW
Substitutes
8R. McGreeMF
22K. JosephFW
9T. ConwayFW
19Leo CastledineMF
3S. ByramDF
31S. BrynnGK
18C. BarronMF
17M. ArfstenDF
14M. Peart-HarrisMF

Stoke vs Middlesbrough injuries and suspensions

Stoke
  • A. CresswellOut · Knee Injury
  • S. IngelssonOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. TalovierovOut · Red Card
Middlesbrough
  • A. JonesOut · Calf Injury

Stoke and Middlesbrough recent form

StokeWWWDW
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026@ Bolton2–1
19/09/2026Sheffield Utd2–1
12/09/2026@ Watford2–1
08/09/2026@ Cardiff1–1
05/09/2026Charlton4–0
MiddlesbroughWDDWL
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Wolves1–0
19/09/2026@ Birmingham2–2
15/09/2026Millwall2–2
12/09/2026Norwich4–3
08/09/2026@ Crystal Palace0–3

Stoke vs Middlesbrough head to head

Last 10 meetings: Stoke won 3, drew 3, lost 4. Goals: 15–13.

DateHomeScoreAway
21/01/2026Stoke City1–2Middlesbrough
30/09/2025Middlesbrough0–0Stoke City
25/02/2025Stoke City1–3Middlesbrough
28/09/2024Middlesbrough2–0Stoke City
27/08/2024Middlesbrough0–5Stoke City
02/03/2024Stoke City2–0Middlesbrough
28/10/2023Middlesbrough0–2Stoke City
14/03/2023Middlesbrough1–1Stoke City
17/08/2022Stoke City2–2Middlesbrough
30/04/2022Middlesbrough3–1Stoke City

Match information

Referee
Elliot Bell
Venue
bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent
Round
10