Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Stoke
26%
Actual result: Stoke 1 – 0 Norwich · Stoke winJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Stoke, negative favours Norwich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Stoke - Norwich)-0.41
Expected total goals2.59
Expected goals Stoke / Norwich1.09 / 1.50
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.6% / 47.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.2%
Over 2.5 goals 47.8%
Over 3.5 goals 26.1%
First half
First-half result (Stoke / draw / Norwich)21.9% / 44.3% / 33.8%
A goal in the first half67.8%
Two or more in the first half33.4%
Half-time then full-time
Norwich lead at half-time then Norwich win27.7%
Level at half-time then draw17.6%
Level at half-time then Norwich win16.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Stoke's side
Stoke −2.06.9%
Stoke −1.758.7%
Stoke −1.510.6%
Stoke −1.2514.5%
Stoke −1.018.5%
Stoke −0.7522.4%
Stoke −0.526.4%
Stoke −0.2533.4%
Stoke draw no bet (0.0)40.4%
Stoke +0.2547.4%
Stoke +0.554.4%
Stoke +0.7560.0%
Stoke +1.065.5%
Stoke +1.576.6%
Stoke +2.083.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Stoke win3.79
Draw3.56
Norwich win2.19
Over 2.52.09
Under 2.51.92
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Stoke wins by more than 1 goals11%
Norwich wins by more than 1 goals23%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards2.3
2.5+ cards in the match40%
