Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sturm Graz
56%
Draw
25%
Hearts
19%
Actual result: Sturm Graz 4 – 0 Hearts · Sturm Graz winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sturm Graz, negative favours Hearts) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sturm Graz - Hearts)+0.83
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Sturm Graz / Hearts1.81 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.3% / 46.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.8%
Over 2.5 goals 53.0%
Over 3.5 goals 30.8%
First half
First-half result (Sturm Graz / draw / Hearts)40.9% / 41.3% / 17.8%
A goal in the first half70.8%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Sturm Graz lead at half-time then Sturm Graz win35.4%
Level at half-time then Sturm Graz win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw15.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sturm Graz's side
Sturm Graz −2.023.8%
Sturm Graz −1.7528.1%
Sturm Graz −1.532.5%
Sturm Graz −1.2538.3%
Sturm Graz −1.044.2%
Sturm Graz −0.7550.1%
Sturm Graz −0.555.9%
Sturm Graz −0.2562.1%
Sturm Graz draw no bet (0.0)68.3%
Sturm Graz +0.2574.5%
Sturm Graz +0.580.6%
Sturm Graz +0.7583.7%
Sturm Graz +1.086.8%
Sturm Graz +1.592.9%
Sturm Graz +2.095.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sturm Graz win1.79
Draw4.05
Hearts win5.16
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sturm Graz wins by more than 1 goals32%
Hearts wins by more than 1 goals7%