Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sunderland
58%
Draw
25%
Hull
17%
Actual result: Sunderland 1 – 0 Hull · Sunderland winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sunderland, negative favours Hull) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sunderland - Hull)+0.90
Expected total goals2.55
Expected goals Sunderland / Hull1.72 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.2% / 52.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.3%
Over 2.5 goals 47.0%
Over 3.5 goals 25.4%
First half
First-half result (Sunderland / draw / Hull)41.3% / 43.1% / 15.6%
A goal in the first half67.5%
Two or more in the first half32.7%
Half-time then full-time
Sunderland lead at half-time then Sunderland win36.4%
Level at half-time then Sunderland win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sunderland's side
Sunderland −2.024.0%
Sunderland −1.7528.5%
Sunderland −1.533.1%
Sunderland −1.2539.2%
Sunderland −1.045.4%
Sunderland −0.7551.5%
Sunderland −0.557.7%
Sunderland −0.2564.1%
Sunderland draw no bet (0.0)70.4%
Sunderland +0.2576.8%
Sunderland +0.583.1%
Sunderland +0.7586.0%
Sunderland +1.088.8%
Sunderland +1.594.5%
Sunderland +2.096.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sunderland win1.73
Draw3.93
Hull win5.93
Over 2.52.13
Under 2.51.89
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sunderland wins by more than 1 goals33%
Hull wins by more than 1 goals5%