Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Swansea
51%
Watford
22%
Actual result: Swansea 2 – 0 Watford · Swansea winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Swansea, negative favours Watford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Swansea - Watford)+0.63
Expected total goals2.56
Expected goals Swansea / Watford1.59 / 0.96
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.4% / 49.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.5%
Over 2.5 goals 47.1%
Over 3.5 goals 25.5%
First half
First-half result (Swansea / draw / Watford)37.0% / 44.1% / 18.9%
A goal in the first half67.5%
Two or more in the first half32.8%
Half-time then full-time
Swansea lead at half-time then Swansea win31.4%
Level at half-time then Swansea win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw17.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Swansea's side
Swansea −2.019.4%
Swansea −1.7523.4%
Swansea −1.527.4%
Swansea −1.2533.3%
Swansea −1.039.2%
Swansea −0.7545.0%
Swansea −0.550.9%
Swansea −0.2557.7%
Swansea draw no bet (0.0)64.5%
Swansea +0.2571.4%
Swansea +0.578.2%
Swansea +0.7581.6%
Swansea +1.085.1%
Swansea +1.592.0%
Swansea +2.094.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Swansea win1.96
Draw3.67
Watford win4.58
Over 2.52.13
Under 2.51.89
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Swansea wins by more than 1 goals27%
Watford wins by more than 1 goals8%
