Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Swansea
39%
Draw
30%
Wrexham
31%
Actual result: Swansea 0 – 0 Wrexham · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Swansea, negative favours Wrexham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Swansea - Wrexham)+0.18
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Swansea / Wrexham1.31 / 1.13
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.9% / 49.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 goals 44.0%
Over 3.5 goals 22.9%
First half
First-half result (Swansea / draw / Wrexham)29.4% / 46.5% / 24.1%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half31.2%
Half-time then full-time
Swansea lead at half-time then Swansea win23.3%
Level at half-time then draw19.5%
Wrexham lead at half-time then Wrexham win17.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Swansea's side
Swansea −2.012.5%
Swansea −1.7515.4%
Swansea −1.518.4%
Swansea −1.2523.6%
Swansea −1.028.8%
Swansea −0.7534.0%
Swansea −0.539.1%
Swansea −0.2546.7%
Swansea draw no bet (0.0)54.3%
Swansea +0.2561.9%
Swansea +0.569.4%
Swansea +0.7573.9%
Swansea +1.078.3%
Swansea +1.587.1%
Swansea +2.091.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Swansea win2.56
Draw3.30
Wrexham win3.27
Over 2.52.27
Under 2.51.79
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Swansea wins by more than 1 goals18%
Wrexham wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards2.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%