Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sweden
49%
Draw
26%
Poland
25%
Actual result: Sweden 3 – 1 Poland · Sweden winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sweden, negative favours Poland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sweden - Poland)+0.56
Expected total goals2.94
Expected goals Sweden / Poland1.75 / 1.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.6% / 41.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.3%
Over 2.5 goals 56.2%
Over 3.5 goals 33.8%
First half
First-half result (Sweden / draw / Poland)36.9% / 41.6% / 21.5%
A goal in the first half72.1%
Two or more in the first half39.3%
Half-time then full-time
Sweden lead at half-time then Sweden win30.7%
Level at half-time then Sweden win16.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sweden's side
Sweden −2.019.9%
Sweden −1.7523.8%
Sweden −1.527.6%
Sweden −1.2533.0%
Sweden −1.038.5%
Sweden −0.7543.9%
Sweden −0.549.3%
Sweden −0.2555.8%
Sweden draw no bet (0.0)62.3%
Sweden +0.2568.8%
Sweden +0.575.3%
Sweden +0.7578.9%
Sweden +1.082.5%
Sweden +1.589.6%
Sweden +2.093.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sweden win2.03
Draw3.85
Poland win4.05
Over 2.51.78
Under 2.52.28
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sweden wins by more than 1 goals28%
Poland wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%