Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sweden
66%
Draw
20%
Romania
13%
Actual result: Sweden 2 – 1 Romania · Sweden winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sweden, negative favours Romania) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sweden - Romania)+1.29
Expected total goals3.06
Expected goals Sweden / Romania2.17 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.6% / 47.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.6%
Over 2.5 goals 58.9%
Over 3.5 goals 36.5%
First half
First-half result (Sweden / draw / Romania)48.5% / 37.5% / 14.0%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half40.7%
Half-time then full-time
Sweden lead at half-time then Sweden win43.8%
Level at half-time then Sweden win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sweden's side
Sweden −2.033.0%
Sweden −1.7538.0%
Sweden −1.543.1%
Sweden −1.2548.8%
Sweden −1.054.6%
Sweden −0.7560.4%
Sweden −0.566.2%
Sweden −0.2571.3%
Sweden draw no bet (0.0)76.4%
Sweden +0.2581.5%
Sweden +0.586.6%
Sweden +0.7588.8%
Sweden +1.091.1%
Sweden +1.595.6%
Sweden +2.097.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sweden win1.51
Draw4.90
Romania win7.45
Over 2.51.70
Under 2.52.44
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sweden wins by more than 1 goals43%
Romania wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match60%