Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Switzerland
73%
Draw
18%
Slovenia
9%
Actual result: Switzerland 2 – 1 Slovenia · Switzerland winJarvis gave this outcome: 73% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Switzerland, negative favours Slovenia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Switzerland - Slovenia)+1.50
Expected total goals2.63
Expected goals Switzerland / Slovenia2.07 / 0.56
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.6% / 62.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.8%
Over 2.5 goals 49.0%
Over 3.5 goals 27.1%
First half
First-half result (Switzerland / draw / Slovenia)51.9% / 38.1% / 10.0%
A goal in the first half69.5%
Two or more in the first half33.1%
Half-time then full-time
Switzerland lead at half-time then Switzerland win48.4%
Level at half-time then Switzerland win21.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Switzerland's side
Switzerland −2.036.1%
Switzerland −1.7541.7%
Switzerland −1.547.3%
Switzerland −1.2553.6%
Switzerland −1.060.0%
Switzerland −0.7566.4%
Switzerland −0.572.8%
Switzerland −0.2577.3%
Switzerland draw no bet (0.0)81.9%
Switzerland +0.2586.4%
Switzerland +0.591.0%
Switzerland +0.7592.7%
Switzerland +1.094.5%
Switzerland +1.598.0%
Switzerland +2.098.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Switzerland win1.37
Draw5.50
Slovenia win11.07
Over 2.52.04
Under 2.51.96
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Switzerland wins by more than 1 goals47%
Slovenia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards2.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%