Argentinian Primera Division
Talleres vs Union Santa Fe prediction
2 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Talleres
41%
Draw
33%
Union Santa Fe
26%
Actual result: Talleres 2 – 1 Union Santa Fe · Talleres winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Talleres, negative favours Union Santa Fe) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Talleres - Union Santa Fe)+0.29
Expected total goals2.02
Expected goals Talleres / Union Santa Fe1.16 / 0.86
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.2% / 58.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 61.5%
Over 2.5 goals 32.9%
Over 3.5 goals 14.6%
First half
First-half result (Talleres / draw / Union Santa Fe)29.1% / 50.8% / 20.0%
A goal in the first half58.7%
Two or more in the first half24.1%
Half-time then full-time
Talleres lead at half-time then Talleres win24.0%
Level at half-time then draw23.4%
Level at half-time then Talleres win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Talleres's side
Talleres −2.012.0%
Talleres −1.7515.0%
Talleres −1.518.1%
Talleres −1.2523.8%
Talleres −1.029.5%
Talleres −0.7535.2%
Talleres −0.540.9%
Talleres −0.2549.2%
Talleres draw no bet (0.0)57.6%
Talleres +0.2565.9%
Talleres +0.574.3%
Talleres +0.7578.4%
Talleres +1.082.6%
Talleres +1.590.9%
Talleres +2.094.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Talleres win2.45
Draw2.99
Union Santa Fe win3.89
Over 2.53.04
Under 2.51.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Talleres wins by more than 1 goals18%
Union Santa Fe wins by more than 1 goals9%