North American Leagues Cup

Toluca vs FC Dallas prediction

3 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Toluca vs FC Dallas (North American Leagues Cup), 13/08/2026, finished 3-1: Toluca won. Before the match Jarvis gave Toluca 70%, the draw 18% and FC Dallas 12%; the actual result had a 70% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Toluca

70%

Draw

18%

FC Dallas

12%

Actual result: Toluca 3 – 1 FC Dallas · Toluca winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toluca, negative favours FC Dallas) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Toluca - FC Dallas)+1.55

Expected total goals3.46

Expected goals Toluca / FC Dallas2.50 / 0.96

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.2% / 42.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 86.7%

Over 2.5 goals 67.2%

Over 3.5 goals 45.5%

First half

First-half result (Toluca / draw / FC Dallas)52.4% / 34.4% / 13.2%

A goal in the first half78.0%

Two or more in the first half47.0%

Half-time then full-time

Toluca lead at half-time then Toluca win48.1%

Level at half-time then Toluca win19.7%

Level at half-time then draw10.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Toluca's side

Toluca −2.038.9%

Toluca −1.7544.1%

Toluca −1.549.2%

Toluca −1.2554.5%

Toluca −1.059.8%

Toluca −0.7565.1%

Toluca −0.570.4%

Toluca −0.2574.9%

Toluca draw no bet (0.0)79.4%

Toluca +0.2583.8%

Toluca +0.588.3%

Toluca +0.7590.2%

Toluca +1.092.2%

Toluca +1.596.0%

Toluca +2.097.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Toluca win1.42

Draw5.58

FC Dallas win8.56

Over 2.51.49

Under 2.53.05

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Toluca wins by more than 1 goals49%

FC Dallas wins by more than 1 goals4%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match