Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Torino
58%
AC Monza
15%
Actual result: Torino 0 – 1 AC Monza · AC Monza winJarvis gave this outcome: 15%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Torino, negative favours AC Monza) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Torino - AC Monza)+0.92
Expected total goals2.42
Expected goals Torino / AC Monza1.67 / 0.75
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.9% / 56.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.8%
Over 2.5 goals 43.6%
Over 3.5 goals 22.6%
First half
First-half result (Torino / draw / AC Monza)41.3% / 44.4% / 14.3%
A goal in the first half65.5%
Two or more in the first half30.6%
Half-time then full-time
Torino lead at half-time then Torino win36.8%
Level at half-time then Torino win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Torino's side
Torino −2.024.0%
Torino −1.7528.6%
Torino −1.533.2%
Torino −1.2539.5%
Torino −1.045.8%
Torino −0.7552.1%
Torino −0.558.4%
Torino −0.2565.0%
Torino draw no bet (0.0)71.5%
Torino +0.2578.1%
Torino +0.584.6%
Torino +0.7587.3%
Torino +1.089.9%
Torino +1.595.3%
Torino +2.097.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Torino win1.71
Draw3.82
AC Monza win6.50
Over 2.52.29
Under 2.51.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Torino wins by more than 1 goals33%
AC Monza wins by more than 1 goals5%
